August
23, 2007
New York Times
Historians Question BushÕs Reading of Lessons of Vietnam War for Iraq
By THOM
SHANKER
WASHINGTON, Aug. 22 — The American withdrawal from Vietnam
is widely remembered as an ignominious end to a misguided war — but one
with few negative repercussions for the United States and its allies.
Now, in urging Americans to stay the course in Iraq, President
Bush is challenging that historical memory.
In reminding Americans that the pullout in 1975 was followed by
years of bloody upheaval in Southeast Asia, Mr. Bush argued in a speech on
Wednesday that VietnamÕs lessons provide a reason for persevering in Iraq,
rather than for leaving any time soon. Mr. Bush in essence accused his war
critics of amnesia over the exodus of Vietnamese Òboat peopleÓ refugees and the
mass killings in Cambodia that upended the lives of millions of people.
President Bush is right on the factual record, according to
historians. But many of them also quarreled with his drawing analogies from the
causes of that turmoil to predict what might happen in Iraq should the United
States withdraw.
ÒIt is undoubtedly true that AmericaÕs failure in Vietnam led to
catastrophic consequences in the region, especially in Cambodia,Ó said
David C. Hendrickson, a specialist on the history of American foreign policy at
Colorado College in Colorado Springs.
ÒBut there are a couple of further points that need weighing,Ó he
added. ÒOne is that the Khmer Rouge would never have come to power in the
absence of the war in Vietnam — this dark force arose out of the
circumstances of the war, was in a deep sense created by the war. The same
thing has happened in the Middle East today. Foreign occupation of Iraq has
created far more terrorists than it has deterred.Ó
The record of death and dislocation after the American withdrawal
from Vietnam ranks high among the tragedies of the last century, with an
estimated 1.7 million Cambodians, about one-fifth of the population, dying
under the rule of Pol Pot, and an estimated 1.5 million Vietnamese and other
Indochinese becoming refugees. Estimates of the number of Vietnamese who were
sent to prison camps after the war have ranged widely, from 50,000 to more than
400,000, and some accounts have said that tens of thousands perished, a figure
that Mr.
Bush cited in his speech, to the Veterans of Foreign Wars. Mr. Bush did not
offer a judgment on what, if anything, might have
brought victory in Vietnam or whether the war itself was a mistake. Instead, he
sought to underscore the dangers of a hasty withdrawal from Iraq.
But the American drawdown from Vietnam was hardly abrupt, and it
lasted much longer than many people remember. The withdrawal actually began in
1968, after the Tet offensive, which was a military
defeat for the Communist guerrillas and their North Vietnamese sponsors. But it
also illustrated the vulnerability of the United States and its South
Vietnamese allies.
Although American commanders asked for several hundred thousand
reinforcements after Tet, President Johnson turned
them down.
President Nixon began a process of ÒVietnamizationÓ
in which responsibility for security was gradually handed to local military and
police forces — similar to Mr. BushÕs long-term strategy for Iraq today.
American air power was used to help sustain South VietnamÕs
struggling government, but by the time of the famous photograph of Americans
being lifted off a roof in Saigon in 1975, few American combat forces were left
in Vietnam. ÒIt was not a precipitous withdrawal, it was a very deliberate
disengagement,Ó said Andrew J.
Bacevich, a platoon leader in Vietnam who is now a
professor of international relations at Boston University.
Vietnam today is a unified and stable nation whose Communist
government poses little threat to its neighbors and is developing healthy ties
with the United States. Mr. Bush visited Vietnam last November; a return visit
to the White House this summer by Nguyen Minh Triet
was the first visit by a Vietnamese head of state since the war.
ÒThe Vietnam comparison should invite us to think harder about how
to minimize the consequences of our military failure,Ó Mr. Bacevich
added. ÒIf one is really concerned about the Iraqi people, and the fate that
may be awaiting them as this war winds down, then we ought to get serious about
opening our doors, and to welcoming to the United States those Iraqis who have
supported us and have put themselves and their families in danger.Ó
To that end, some members of Congress and human rights groups have
urged the Bush administration to drop the limits on Iraqi refugees admitted to
the United States.
Mr. Bush also sought to inspire renewed support for his Iraq
strategy by recalling the years of national sacrifice during World War II, and
the commitment required to rebuild two of historyÕs most aggressive and lawless
adversaries, Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan, into reliable and responsible
allies.
But historians note that Germany and Japan were homogenous nation-
states with clear national identities and no internal feuding among factions or
sects, in stark contrast to Iraq today.
The comparison of Iraq to Germany and Japan Òis fanciful,Ó said
Steven Simon, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. He noted
that the American and allied militaries had eliminated the governments of Japan
and Germany, and any lingering opposition, and assembled occupation forces that
were, proportionally, more than three times as large as the current American
presence of more than 160,000 troops in Iraq.
ÒThatÕs the kind of troop level you need to control the
situation,Ó
Mr. Simon said. ÒThe occupation of Germany and Japan lasted for years —
and not a single American solider was killed by insurgents.Ó
Senior American military officers speaking privately also say that
the essential elements that brought victory in World War II — a total
commitment by the American people and the government, and a staggering economic
commitment to rebuild defeated adversaries — do not exist for the Iraq
war. The wars in Korea and Vietnam also involved considerable national sacrifice,
including tax increases and conscription.